Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

doi:10.1186/s40623-024-02042-3

	Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)
	Winska, Malgorzata 1; Kur, Tomasz 2; Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna 3; Nastula, Jolanta 3; Dobslaw, Henryk 4; Partyka, Aleksander 3; Belda, Santiago 5; Bizouard, Christian 6; Boggs, Dale 7; Chin, Mike 7; Dhar, Sujata 4; Ferrandiz, Jose M.5; Gou, Junyang 8; Gross, Richard 7; Guessoum, Sonia 5; Heinkelmann, Robert 4; Modiri, Sadegh 9; Ratcliff, Todd 7; Raut, Shrishail 4,10; Schartner, Matthias 8; Schuh, Harald 4,10; Shahvandi, Mostafa Kiani 8; Soja, Benedikt 8; Thaller, Daniela 9; Wu, Yuanwei 11; Xu, Xueqing 12; Yang, Xinyu 11; Zhao, Xin 11
	2024-07-30
发表期刊	EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE
卷号	76 期号:1 页码:21
摘要	In 2021, the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) established a working group tasked with conducting the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) to assess the current accuracy of EOP forecasts. From September 2021 to December 2022, EOP predictions submitted by participants from various institutes worldwide were systematically collected and evaluated. This article summarizes the campaign's outcomes, concentrating on the forecasts of the dX, dY, and d psi, d epsilon components of celestial pole offsets (CPO). After detailing the campaign participants and the methodologies employed, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the collected forecasts. We examine the discrepancies between observed and predicted CPO values and analyze their statistical characteristics such as mean, standard deviation, and range. To evaluate CPO forecasts, we computed the mean absolute error (MAE) using the IERS EOP 14 C04 solution as the reference dataset. We then compared the results obtained with forecasts provided by the IERS. The main goal of this study was to show the influence of different methods used on predictions accuracy. Depending on the evaluated prediction approach, the MAE values computed for day 10 of forecast were between 0.03 and 0.16 mas for dX, between 0.03 and 0.12 mas for dY, between 0.07 and 0.91 mas for d psi, and between 0.04 and 0.41 mas for d epsilon. For day 30 of prediction, the corresponding MAE values ranged between 0.03 and 0.12 for dX, and between 0.03 and 0.14 mas for dY. This research shows that machine learning algorithms are the most promising approach in CPO forecasting and provide the highest prediction accuracy (0.06 mas for dX and 0.08 mas for dY for day 10 of prediction).
关键词	Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) Celestial pole offsets (CPO) Prediction
资助者	Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki
DOI	10.1186/s40623-024-02042-3
关键词[WOS]	LEAST-SQUARES ; ACCURACY ; COMBINATION ; PRECESSION ; FILTER ; VLBI
语种	英语
资助项目	Narodowym Centrum Nauki
资助者	Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki ; Narodowym Centrum Nauki
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001280937500001
出版者	SPRINGER
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://210.72.145.45/handle/361003/14492
专题	高精度时间传递与精密测定轨研究室
通讯作者	Winska, Malgorzata
作者单位	1.Warsaw Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn, Armii Ludowej 16, PL-00637 Warsaw, Poland 2.Wroclaw Univ Environm & Life Sci, Inst Geodesy & Geoinformat, Grunwaldzka 53, PL-50357 Wroclaw, Poland 3.Ctr Badan Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Bartycka 18A, PL-00716 Warsaw, Poland 4.Deutsch GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Dept Geodesy 1, Potsdam, Germany 5.Univ Alicante, UAVAC, Alicante, Spain 6.Paris Observ, Paris, France 7.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA 8.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Geodesy & Photogrammetry, Zurich, Switzerland 9.Fed Agcy Cartog & Geodesy BKG, Frankfurt, Germany 10.Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Geodesy & Geoinformat Sci, Berlin, Germany 11.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Time Serv Ctr, Xian, Peoples R China 12.Chinese Acad Sci, Shanghai Astron Observ, CAS Key Lab Planetary Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Winska, Malgorzata,Kur, Tomasz,Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna,et al. Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)[J]. EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE,2024,76(1):21.
APA	Winska, Malgorzata.,Kur, Tomasz.,Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna.,Nastula, Jolanta.,Dobslaw, Henryk.,...&Zhao, Xin.(2024).Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC).EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE,76(1),21.
MLA	Winska, Malgorzata,et al."Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)".EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE 76.1(2024):21.